[1] Title: Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
[1] URL Source: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
[1] Description: Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election? Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast. It will always contain the most recent data from the model.1
[1] Published Time: 2024-08-31T17:03:00+00:00
[1] Markdown Content:
[](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28270a3f-c080-49f1-80a6-3f105f5be55a_1200x600.jpeg)
_**🕒 Last update: 1:00 p.m., Saturday, August 31**:_ Another day of slight decline for Kamala Harris, and it’s the same culprits — the convention bounce adjustment, which you’re welcome to argue with but I defend in the [new edition of SBSQ](https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-12-will-the-polls-lowball-trump), and the polling in Pennsylvania, where we added two new polls showing Trump slightly ahead. Democrats shouldn’t worry so much about the Trafalgar poll; it counts as a Republican poll by our standards and the model accounts for its strong GOP house effect. But a Wick [poll](https://www.youtube.com/live/X773PMNqjsw) showing Harris down a point in the multiway matchup isn’t great for the vice president, especially considering it shows that she [would have run](https://x.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1829609868589719820) much stronger [with Josh Shapiro on the ticket](https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-she-should-pick-shapiro).
Don’t forget to check out today’s SBSQ, which [focuses on the possibility of another polling error in Trump’s favor](https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-12-will-the-polls-lowball-trump). And for paid subscribers, we’ve added a spreadsheet labeled “Forecast Steps” that details how the model gets from polling averages to its forecast of the Nov. 5 outcome.
**Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election?**
Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast. It will always contain the most recent data from the model.[1](https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model#footnote-1-146002606)
The model is the [direct descendant](https://www.natesilver.net/p/some-personal-news) of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast[2](https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model#footnote-2-146002606) and the methodology is [largely the same](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-presidential-forecast-works-and-whats-different-because-of-covid-19/), other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020. Other changes from 2020 are documented [here](https://www.natesilver.net/model-methodology-2024). And an archive of the Biden-Trump forecast can be found [here](https://www.natesilver.net/p/silver-bulletin-2024-biden-trump).
The Silver Bulletin polling averages are a [little fancy](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-polling-averages-show-biden-leads-trump-by-9-points-nationally/). They adjust for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of RFK Jr., and [house effects](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/). They weight [more reliable polls](https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin) more heavily. And they use national polls to make inferences about state polls and vice versa. It requires a few extra CPU cycles — but the reward is a more stable average that doesn’t get psyched out by [outliers](https://www.wbay.com/2020/10/28/biden-leads-trump-by-17-points-in-wisconsin-in-abc-newswashington-post-poll/).
[Needless to say](https://www.vox.com/presidential-election/2016/11/9/13572686/donald-trump-front-page-us-newspapers), stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning. And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close and a candidate is rarely out of the running. So here is how our model translates polls and the other inputs it uses into probabilities in the Electoral College and the popular vote in every state — plus some nightmare scenarios like a repeat of the [2000 Florida recount](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_recount_in_Florida). (It’s more likely than you might think, alas.) We’re not afraid of playing the percentages here — even to the decimal place.
[2] Title: 2024 United States presidential election
[2] URL Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election
[2] Description: If Trump wins the election in November, then on January 20, 2025, Trump could order a new attorney general to dismiss the federal charges he is facing, prevent the state charges from taking affect through a variety of methods, and issue a presidential self-pardon. On July 1, 2024, the US Supreme ...
[2] Published Time: 2015-10-18T10:50:21Z
[2] Markdown Content:
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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
For related elections, see 2024 United States elections.
2024 United States presidential election
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
2024 electoral map, based on the results of the 2020 census
Incumbent President
Joe Biden
Democratic
2024 U.S. presidential election
Timeline WithdrawalPresidential debatesPartiesPolling nationalstatewideNews media endorsements primarygeneralFundraisingBallot accessInterference RussianIranian
Democratic Party
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Republican Party
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← 2020 2024 2028 →
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The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] Voters in each state and the District of Columbia will choose electors to the Electoral College, who will then elect a president and vice president for a term of four years.
The incumbent president, Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee, facing little opposition.[2][3] However, Biden's performance in the June 2024 presidential debate intensified concerns about his age and health, and led to calls within his party for him to leave the race.[4] He withdrew on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who became the party's nominee on August 5. Harris selected Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, as her running mate. Biden's withdrawal makes him the first eligible incumbent president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 not to run for re-election, and the first to withdraw after securing enough delegates to win the nomination.[5] Harris is the first nominee who did not participate in the primaries since Hubert Humphrey, also in 1968.[6]
Biden's predecessor, Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election for a second, non-consecutive term, after losing to Biden in 2020.[7] Trump faced little opposition in the Republican primaries. Trump was nominated during the 2024 Republican National Convention along with his running mate, Ohio senator JD Vance. Trump's campaign has been criticized by legal experts, historians, and political scientists for invoking violent rhetoric and authoritarian statements.[8][9][10] Trump has made large numbers of false and misleading statements,[11][12][13] promoted conspiracy theories,[14][15] and has continued to repeat false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him, which prompted the January 6 Capitol attack.[16] The Republican Party has made efforts to disrupt the 2024 presidential election as part of a larger election denial movement. In 2023 and 2024, Trump was found liable and guilty in civil and criminal proceedings, respectively, for sexual abuse, defamation, financial fraud, and falsifying business records, becoming the first former president to be convicted of a crime.[17] Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13, 2024.
The presidential election will take place at the same time as elections for the U.S. Senate, House, gubernatorial, and state legislatures. Key swing states for the presidential election include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.[18] Leading campaign issues are abortion,[19][20][21] border security and immigration,[22][23] climate change,[24][25] democracy,[26][27] the economy,[28] education,[29] foreign policy,[30] healthcare,[31] and LGBT rights.[32] The winners are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, as the 47th president and 50th vice president of the United States.
Background
Procedure
Main article: United States presidential election § Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention. If no candidate wins a majority of their party's delegates' votes, or (in this election) a party's presumptive nominee drops out of the race between the primaries and the convention, a brokered convention may be held: the delegates are then "released" and are free to switch their allegiance to a different candidate.[33]
The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[34]
Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny. Officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. Numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election.[35] [36]
Trump is the first president in American history to be impeached twice, and the first to run again after impeachment. Trump was first impeached by the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives in December 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress due to his attempts to coerce Ukraine to provide damaging information on Joe Biden and misinformation regarding Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections by withholding military aid.[37] Trump's second impeachment by the House occurred on January 13, 2021, for "incitement of insurrection" owing to his role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack. As Trump was acquitted by the Senate in both cases, Trump is not barred from seeking reelection to the presidency in 2024.[38]
The Colorado Supreme Court,[39] a state Circuit Court in Illinois,[40] and the Secretary of State of Maine[41] ruled that Trump is ineligible to hold office under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution for his role in the January 6 Capitol attack, and as such, attempted to disqualify him from appearing on the ballot.[42][41] These attempts were unsuccessful, as on March 4, 2024, the United States Supreme Court unanimously ruled that states cannot determine eligibility for a national election under Section 3.[43]
Election interference
Main article: Election interference
Further information: Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, and January 6 United States Capitol attack
False claims of interference made by Donald Trump
Further information: Election denial movement in the United States, Big lie § Donald Trump's lies of a stolen election, and Republican Party efforts to disrupt the 2024 United States presidential election
To sow election doubt, Trump escalated use of "rigged election" and "election interference" statements in advance of the 2024 election compared to the previous two elections.[44]
Trump has made false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, and has continued denying the election results as of August 2024.[45][46] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election, may attempt to impede the voting process, or refuse to certify the 2024 results.[47] The New York Times has reported that "the Republican Party and its conservative allies are engaged in an unprecedented legal campaign targeting the American voting system", by restricting voting for partisan advantage ahead of Election Day and preparing to mount "legally dubious" challenges against the certification process if Trump loses.[48] In the lead up to the 2024 election, the Republican Party has made false claims of massive "noncitizen voting" by immigrants, in an attempt to delegitimize the election in the event of a Trump defeat.[49][50][51]
The claims have been made as part of larger Republican Party efforts to disrupt the 2024 United States presidential election and election denial movement.[52] Trump has continued spreading his "Big Lie" of a stolen election and has predicted without evidence that the 2024 election would be rigged against him. Trump has baselessly claimed some version of "election interference" against him roughly once per day since announcing his 2024 candidacy. Trump has falsely accused Biden of "weaponizing" the Justice Department to target him in relation to his criminal trials.[44] Trump and several Republicans have stated they will not accept the results of the 2024 election if they believe they are "unfair."[53]
Trump's previous comments suggesting he can "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss,[54][55] his claim that he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not after,[a] his promise to use the Justice Department to go after his political enemies,[62] his plan to use the Insurrection Act of 1807 to deploy the military in Democratic cities and states,[63][64] attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, continued Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, Trump's baseless predictions of voter fraud in the 2024 election,[65] and Trump's public embrace and celebration of the January 6 United States Capitol attack,[66] have raised concerns over the state of democracy in America.[67][68][69][70] Trump's political operation said that it plans to deploy more than 100,000 attorneys and volunteers to polling places across battleground states, with an "election integrity hotline" for poll watchers and voters to report alleged voting irregularities.[71]
Interference by foreign nations
Current and former U.S. officials have stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election is likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI."[72] On April 1, 2024, The New York Times reported that the Chinese government had created fake pro-Trump accounts on social media "promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November."[73] According to disinformation experts and intelligence agencies, Russia spread disinformation ahead of the 2024 election to damage Joe Biden and Democrats, boost candidates supporting isolationism, and undercut support for Ukraine aid and NATO.[74][75]
On August 8, 2024, Microsoft reported that Iran was attempting to influence the 2024 presidential election and that a group affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard had "broken into the email account of a former senior adviser to a presidential campaign".[76] On August 10, 2024, the Trump campaign claimed it had been hacked by Iran as part of Iranian interference, and on August 12 the Harris campaign also claimed to have been victims of a failed spear phishing attack by Iran.[77] On August 14, 2024, Google's Threat Analysis Group reported that Iran had attempted to hack the Trump and Biden-Harris campaigns in May and June.[76]
Criminal trials and indictments against Donald Trump
Main article: Indictments against Donald Trump
Further information: Federal prosecution of Donald Trump (election obstruction case), Georgia election racketeering prosecution, Federal prosecution of Donald Trump (classified documents case), Prosecution of Donald Trump in New York, and Personal and business legal affairs of Donald Trump
Trump has been found liable in civil proceedings for both sexual abuse and defamation in 2023 and defamation in 2024, while also being criminally convicted of 34 felonies related to falsifying business records, expected to be an issue during the campaign. He has four criminal indictments totaling 91 felony counts and there are other lawsuits against Trump.[78] On May 30, Trump was found guilty by a jury of all 34 felony counts in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump over falsifying business records for hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, to ensure her silence about a sexual encounter between them, to influence the 2016 presidential election. This makes Trump the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime in American history.[79] Trump and many Republicans have made numerous false and misleading statements regarding Trump's criminal trials, including false claims that they are "rigged" or "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party, of which there is no evidence.[80][44]
Trump faces an additional 57 felony counts; four counts in a United States of America v. Donald J. Trump for his alleged role in attempting to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election and involvement in the January 6 United States Capitol attack; 10 counts in The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al. for his alleged attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 United States presidential election in Georgia; 40 counts in United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Waltine Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira relating to his hoarding of classified documents and alleged obstruction of efforts to retrieve them.[81]
In addition to his indictments, on May 9, 2023, Trump was found liable by an anonymous jury[82] for sexual abuse[83] in E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump and ordered to pay a total of $88.3 million combined for damages and defamation.[84][85][86] In September 2023, Trump was found guilty of financial fraud and ordered to pay a $457 million judgement currently on appeal.[87]
According to an April 2024 Reuters/Ipsos poll, the percentage of registered voters who found Trump's charges somewhat to very serious in the federal elections case was 74%, 72% in the Georgia case, 69% in the classified documents case, and 64% in the New York hush money case.[88] Nearly a quarter of Republican voters said they would not vote for Trump if found guilty of a felony by a jury.[87] Following his hush money conviction, 15% of likely Republican voters and 49% of independents stated they wanted Trump to drop out, and 54% of registered voters approved of the jury's decision.[89] Polling also found 56% of Republicans who were unchanged by the verdict, and 35% of Republicans and 18% of independents who stated they were more likely to vote for Trump.[90]
Trump has been noted for attempting to delay his trials until after the November election. If Trump wins the election in November, then on January 20, 2025, Trump could order a new attorney general to dismiss the federal charges he is facing, prevent the state charges from taking affect through a variety of methods, and issue a presidential self-pardon.[91][92]
On July 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court delivered its 6–3 decision in Trump v. United States, along ideological lines, ruling that Trump had absolute immunity for acts he committed as president within his core constitutional purview, at least presumptive immunity for official acts within the outer perimeter of his official responsibility, and no immunity for unofficial acts.[93][94][95] Thus, Trump's sentencing date for his convictions in New York was delayed from July to September 2024,[96] and likely the trial dates in Trump's other cases will be delayed as well, to review the applicability of the Supreme Court's decision.[97][98]
Age and health concerns
Joe Biden
Main article: Age and health concerns about Joe Biden
Former Republican president Donald Trump and mass media raised concerns about President Biden's age, including his cognitive state, during and after the 2020 United States presidential election. These concerns increased after a poor performance by Biden during a debate against Trump in the 2024 presidential election, which led a number of commentators and some Democratic lawmakers to call for Biden to drop out of the 2024 presidential race.[99] He later withdrew his candidacy while stating that he would continue serving as president until the conclusion of his term.[100]
According to a February 2024 poll, Biden's age and health were major or moderate concerns for 86% of voters generally,[101] up from 76% earlier in 2020.[102] According to another 2024 poll, most of those who voted for Biden in 2020 said they believed he was too old to be an effective president; The New York Times noted that these concerns "cut across generations, gender, race and education".[103]
Donald Trump
Main article: Age and health concerns about Donald Trump
According to polling released in July and August, a majority of voters polled after the first debate think Trump is too old to serve a second term (51%,[104] 57%,[105] and 60%[106]), with 80% unsure he would be able to finish out a second term.[104] During and after Trump's presidency, comments on his age, weight, lifestyle and history of heart disease have raised questions about his physical health.[107] In addition, numerous public figures, media sources, and mental health professionals have speculated that Trump may have some form of dementia, which runs in his family.[108] Experts for the science publication STAT who analyzed changes in Trump's speeches between 2015 and 2024 noted shorter sentences, more tangents, more repetition and more confusion of words and phrases. The doctors suggested it could just be due to changes in mood or it could indicate the beginning of Alzheimer's.[109] The sharp rise in all-or-nothing thinking is also linked to cognitive decline.[109] Trump has also been criticized for his lack of transparency around his medical records and health.[110][111]
The New York Times and Los Angeles Times[112] editorial boards also declared Trump unfit to lead, pointing to what former Trump officials "have described as his systematic dishonesty, corruption, cruelty and incompetence."[113][114] Donald Trump has also been criticized for his hiring decisions,[115][116] and noted for his unusual criminal record.[117]
Political violence
See also: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Violent and dehumanizing statements
Several scholars, lawmakers, intelligence agencies, and the public have expressed concerns about political violence surrounding the 2024 election.[118][119] The fears come amidst increasing threats and acts of physical violence targeting public officials and election workers at all levels of government.[120][121] Trump has increasingly embraced extremism, conspiracy theories such as Q-Anon, and far-right militia movements to a greater extent than any modern American president.[15][14] Trump has espoused dehumanizing, combative, and violent rhetoric and promised retribution against his political enemies.[129] Trump has played down but refused to rule out violence following the 2024 election, stating "it depends".[130]
Assassination attempt
Main article: Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
U.S. president Joe Biden commenting on the assassination attempt, July 13
On July 13, 2024, Trump survived an assassination attempt while addressing a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania.[131] Trump was shot and wounded on his right ear by Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old man from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania,[132][133] who fired eight rounds with an AR-15–style rifle from the roof of a building located approximately 400 feet (120 meters) from the stage; the shots killed audience member Corey Comperatore and critically injured two other audience members.[132] Crooks was subsequently shot and killed by the U.S. Secret Service's counter-sniper team.[134] The motive and cause of the assassination attempt are still under investigation by authorities.[135]
Electoral map
Effects of the 2020 census
Main article: 2020 United States redistricting cycle
This will be the first presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[136][137] If the state results of 2020 were to stay the same in 2024, which has never occurred before, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 and Trump's 232, meaning Democrats lost a net 3 electoral votes to reapportionment. This apportionment will remain through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 census.[138]
Swing states
Further information: Red states and blue states
Most states are not competitive because demographics keep them solidly behind a party. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means a limited number of swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the parties – are vital to winning the presidency. These are the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania; and the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.[18]
Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, while Colorado, New Mexico and Oregon have moved towards the Democrats.[139][140][141] The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, has had relatively high support among Black voters;[142][143] voters who have attended college[144] or who live in urban areas.[145] Some working class voters since the 1970s, have drifted towards Republican candidates as Democrats moved to the left on cultural issues.[146] The traditional Republican coalition in "red states" is composed mainly of rural White voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[147] Republicans had performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them recently because of the rise of the Make America Great Again movement.[148] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there.[149]
Campaign issues
Campaign themes
See also: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § Platform, Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Platform, and 2024 United States elections § Issues
Harris campaign
Harris has framed her campaign as "a choice between freedom and chaos" and based it around the ideals of "freedom" and "the future".[150][151] The Harris campaign has sought to highlight her experience as an attorney general and a prosecutor to "prosecute the case" against Trump by pointing out his 34 felony convictions.[152] Harris is running as a moderate Democrat and has moderated several of her policy positions since her 2019 run, with many of her domestic policy stances now expected to resemble Biden's.[153][154][155] Harris's stances will also have a particular focus on reproductive healthcare, criminal justice, and civil rights issues.[155] Harris' campaign has been noted for having an optimistic and joyful tone.[156][157]
Trump campaign
A central campaign theme for Trump's second presidential bid is "retribution".[158][159] Trump announced the theme during his March 2023 speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), stating "In 2016, I declared, 'I am your voice.' Today, I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution. I am your retribution." Trump framed the 2024 election as "the final battle," and openly promised to leverage the power of the presidency for political reprisals,[160] though he has also stated his retribution "will be success".[161] Trump is heavily running on immigration as a central campaign focus. The Washington Post described Trump's campaign as focusing on "dark and apocalyptic" rhetoric about the state of the country and the future if he does not win.[162] The Associated Press states that "Trump's rallies take on the symbols, rhetoric and agenda of Christian nationalism."[163]
During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump has made numerous false and misleading statements.[11][12][13] The large amount of lies and false statements have been attributed to Trump's rhetorical style described as using the big lie and firehose of falsehood propaganda technique.[164][165] During a 64 minute news conference on August 8, 2024, NPR counted Trump making over 162 "misstatements, exaggerations and outright lies" averaging more than two per minute. They described the amount of Trump's lies as "stunning" and "beyond the bounds of what most politicians would do".[166] CNN has called Trump's claims a "bombardment of dishonesty".[167] The Washington Post has described Trump's speeches as a "bacchanalia of lies and mistruths".[162] Trump has also made many personal attacks against Harris,[168] several of which are sexual in nature,[169] viewed as racist and misogynistic,[170][171][172] and considered a continued breaking of norms regarding political speech.[169]
Abortion
Main article: Abortion in the United States
Abortion-rights protestors in Washington, D.C., on May 14, 2022, as part of the Bans Off Our Bodies protest following the leaked draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade.
Abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign.[173][22] This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[174] The three justices appointed by former president Donald Trump—Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, and Neil Gorsuch—all voted to overturn the federal right to an abortion in Dobbs.[175]
Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right[176] while Republican politicians generally favor significantly restricting the legality of abortion.[177] By April 2023, most Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it largely illegal throughout much of the southern United States. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early-stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.[174]
Trump has claimed credit for overturning Roe, but has criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans.[178][179] Trump has said he will leave the issue of abortion for the states to decide, but would allow red states to monitor women's pregnancies and prosecute them if they have an abortion.[180] Since becoming the presumptive nominee, Kamala Harris has indicated her support for passing legislation which would restore the federal abortion right protections previously guaranteed by Roe.[181][182][183] She argued Trump would let his anti-abortion allies implement Project 2025 proposals to restrict abortion and contraception throughout the US.[184]
Border security and immigration
Main articles: Mexico–United States border crisis and United States border security concerns
Further information: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § Immigration, and Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Immigration
Border security and immigration are among the top issues concerning potential voters in the 2024 presidential election.[185][186] Polling has shown that a majority of Americans want to reduce immigration into the country[187] and that a substantial minority of white Republicans are concerned about white demographic decline.[188] In 2023 and early 2024, a surge of migrants entering the country through the United States' border with Mexico occurred.[189] By June 2024, illegal crossings reached a three-year low following four consecutive monthly drops, which senior U.S. officials attributed to increased enforcement between the United States and Mexico, the weather, and Biden's executive order increasing asylum restrictions.[190] By July 2024, border arrests dropped 33% to a 46-month low as a result of Biden's executive action after it previously dropped by 55% in June, bringing it to its lowest level since September 2020.[191]
Harris has promised to fight for "strong border security" coupled with an earned pathway to citizenship. Harris has highlighted her work in combating transnational gangs, drug cartels, and human traffickers while attorney general.[192] In 2023, as vice president, Harris announced pledges of US$950 million from private companies into Central American communities to address the causes of mass migration, such as poverty.[183] Harris states she believes the immigration system is "broken" and needs to be fixed, and she says most Americans believe this.[183] Harris supports increasing the number of Border Patrol agents and accuses Trump as being unserious on border security.[193] While vice president, Harris supported a bipartisan bill which would have funded additional border agents and closed the border if too crowded that was rejected by Trump. Trump called on House and Senate Republicans to kill the bill arguing that it would hurt his and Republican's reelection campaigns and deny them the ability to run on immigration as a campaign issue.[194][195][196][197][198][199] Harris has criticized Trump for his opposition to the bill on the campaign trail,[192] and has promised to sign the bill into law as president.[200]
Donald Trump has pledged to finish the wall on the southern border if elected.
Donald Trump has stated that if elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand ICE detentions through workplace raids,[201] deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase Customs and Border Patrol funding as well as finish building the wall on the southern border.[202] The New York Times reported that Trump is considering "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration," such as "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled."[201] Trump has stated his intention to deport 11 million people through the construction of detention camps and using the military.[180] Trump has made false claims of a "migrant crime wave" that are not supported by national data.[203]
Trump's anti-immigration tone is noted to have grown harsher from his previous time as president,[201] and has drawn criticism for using more dehumanizing rhetoric when referring to some illegal immigrants. Trump has called some immigrants "not human", "not people", and "animals".[204][205][206] Since fall 2023,[207] Trump has claimed that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has drawn comparisons to racial hygiene rhetoric used by white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.[208][209][207][125] Trump's comments come as part of violent, dehumanizing rhetoric Trump has increasingly utilized during his campaign.[210][204][124][125][126][127]
Climate change
Main article: Climate change in the United States
Further information: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § Climate change and energy; and Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Energy, environment, and climate change
See also: Environmental policy of the Donald Trump administration, Climate change denial, and Inflation Reduction Act
Climate change is expected to be an issue in the 2024 presidential election.[24][25] In 2023, the United States saw a record in crude oil production with over 13.2 million barrels of crude per day beating the 13 million barrels per day produced at the peak of Trump's presidency.[211] America also dealt with supply shocks caused by the 2021–2024 global energy crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine.[212]
Harris is an advocate for environmental justice to address the impact of climate change on lower-income areas and people of color. Under Biden, she supported his climate legislation.[183] Harris helped pass the Inflation Reduction Act,[213] the largest investment in addressing climate change and clean energy in US history[214] putting the US on track to meet emissions reduction targets by 50–52% below 2005 levels by 2030.[215] Harris's campaign has stated that she does not support a ban on fracking.[216][154][153]
Trump has ridiculed the idea of man-made climate change[217][218][219] and repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "drill, baby, drill."[220] Trump says he will increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.[221] Trump has promised to roll back electric vehicle initiatives, proposed once again leaving the Paris Climate Accords, and rescinding several environmental regulations.[221][222] Trump has stated his intention to roll back parts of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.[223]
Democracy
Main articles: Democratic backsliding in the United States, Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, and Election denial movement in the United States
See also: Project 2025, Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Authoritarian and antidemocratic statements, and Indictments against Donald Trump
The election will come as the first presidential election following Trump's former attempts to overturn the 2020 election and January 6 United States Capitol attack. It also comes amidst Trump's federal indictment for attempting to overturn the 2020 election and involvement in the attack and racketeering charges for attempting to overturn Joe Biden's victory in the state of Georgia.
Democracy is expected to be a large issue in the 2024 election. An AP-NORC poll of 1,074 adults conducted between November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that 62% of adults said democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the next election.[224]
Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.[225][226][227] Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with Christian nationalist autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[228] Some Republicans are concerned that Trump's former impeachment and four criminal indictments are attempts to influence the election and keep him from office.[229] However, there is no evidence that Trump's criminal trials are "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.[80][44] Trump has repeated false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him.[16]
Donald Trump's 2024 campaign has been criticized by legal experts, historians, and political scientists for making increasingly violent and authoritarian statements,[8][9][10] which some believe the Trump campaign is intentionally leaning into.[230] Trump's platform calls for the vast expansion of presidential powers and the executive branch over every part of the federal government.[231] Trump has called for stripping employment protections for thousands of career civil service employees and replacing them with political loyalists if deemed an "obstacle to his agenda" within federal agencies, the United States Intelligence Community, State Department, and Department of Defense.[232] Trump has repeatedly stated his intention to have the Justice Department investigate and arrest his domestic political rivals, judges, prosecutors, and witnesses involved in his criminal trials.[233][234][235] Project 2025 is a proposed plan by the Heritage Foundation to centralize power into the executive branch for conservative policies to be enacted without input from the judicial branch, legislative branch or local government. The plan received some support from the Republican Party. The document was written in part by former members of the Trump administration such as Russell Vought, and John McEntee[236] while Donald Trump stated he is unfamiliar with parts of the plan.[237][238][239]
Trump's campaign has been noted for using increasingly dehumanizing and violent rhetoric against his political enemies.[210][204][240][125][241][242] Trump has promised to pardon those charged for their involvement in the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack and has called those charged "hostages" and "great, great patriots."[243][244][245] Trump has played down but not ruled out violence after the 2024 election if he does not win, stating, "it depends."[246]
Harris was tasked by Biden with protecting democracy through voting rights legislation through her work on the For the People Act. Harris has supported efforts to defend election workers and counter Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election.[183] Harris says she supports efforts to improve racial justice. Harris previously supported the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.[183] Harris has supported demilitarizing police departments, and has pushed back against calls to defund the police.[154] Harris has has stated her support to pass the Freedom to Vote Act and John Lewis Rights Voting Rights Advancement Act if elected.[247]
Economic issues
Main article: Economy of the United States
Further information: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § Economy, Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Economy and trade, and U.S. federal government response to the COVID-19 pandemic
Post-covid inflation spike in the US (blue), and EuroZone (gray dash). Vertical gray line marks start of COVID in US
Voters consistently cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, America went through a surge in inflation that raised prices on many goods.[248][249][250] The New York Times reports that both candidates "embraced a vision of a powerful federal government, using its muscle to intervene in markets in pursuit of a stronger and more prosperous economy."[251]
Harris supports strengthening the middle class,[252] and is running on a pro-union agenda.[253] Harris has promoted the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, funding for small business, and previously supported an act as senator to provide a $6,000 tax credit for middle and low-income families.[183] Harris has promised to address price gouging, bring down costs, ban hidden fees and late charges from financial institutions, limit "unfair" rent increases and cap prescription drug costs which she has said would "lower costs and save many middle-class families thousands of dollars a year".[254]
The New York Times described Harris' economic policy as embracing "the idea that the federal government must act aggressively to foster competition and correct distortions in private markets." Harris has proposed raising taxes on corporations and high-earners to fund services for the lower and middle classes and reduce the deficit.[251] Harris has stated she supports efforts to create a tax on unrealized gains for those with more than a $100 million in net worth if they do not pay a minimum 25% tax rate on their income inclusive of unrealized gains so long as 80% of said wealth is in tradeable assets. The plan would impact a small percentage of America's wealthy, and Axios reported most tech founders and investors would be spared.[255] Harris has also announced support for restoring the corporate tax rate to 28% among several other tax proposals to raise taxes and close loopholes for corporations and the wealthy that would bring in $5 trillion in additional revenue over 10 years.[256] Harris has also proposed tax breaks to companies delivering economic benefit, such as manufacturing technologies to fight global warming and building affordable housing. Harris has proposed a ban on corporate price gouging to "help the food industry become more competitive."[251] Harris has also expressed support for student debt relief,[252] and endorsed a "no tax on tips" policy that has seen bipartisan support, including from her presidential competitor Donald Trump. Harris says she supports raising the minimum wage.[257]
Harris says she will increase home construction to reduce housing costs, arguing that it negatively impacts the economy and hurts working-class families. Harris has proposed directing $40 billion to construction companies to build starter homes. Harris has promised to send $25,000 in down-payment assistance to every first time home buyer.[251] Harris says she will urge Congress to enforce fair housing laws and pass a bill to bar property owners from using services that "coordinate" rents through the passage of the Preventing the Algorithmic Facilitation of Rental Housing Cartels Act, and also call on Congress to pass the Stop Predatory Investing Act by removing tax benefits to Wall Street firms that buy up large numbers of single-family homes.[258][259]
Trump has proposed further individual and corporate tax cuts beyond his prior 2017 tax cuts.[260] Trump has argued that keeping taxes low for the wealthy increases job creation,[261] and that these policies coupled with a crackdown in illegal immigration and reduction in inflation will help the middle class.[252] Trump promises to reduce regulation of business, including environmental regulation. Trump has said deporting millions of immigrants will bring housing prices down.[251]
Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. This would be accomplished through a universal baseline tariff[262] of 10% to 20% on all imports,[263][264] with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices.[221] Trump has called for 100% tariffs on cars made outside the U.S. and a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese goods.[263] Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.[221] The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump was preparing for a massive trade war.[265] Trump's trade policies have been described as protectionist,[266] neomercantilist or autarkist.[262][267] Increasing inflation has become a more common critique of Trump's economic plans.[268][269][270][271] In June 2024, 16 Nobel Prize in Economics laureates signed an open letter arguing that Trump's fiscal and trade policies coupled with efforts to limit the Federal Reserve's independence would reignite inflation in the United States.[272][273][274] Moody's[275] and most economists surveyed by the WSJ in July 2024 predict that inflation would be worse under Trump than Biden, a result due in part to tariffs, a crack down on illegal immigration, and larger deficits.[276]
Education
Main article: Education in the United States
Further information: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Education, 2020s controversies around critical race theory, and Parental rights movement
Trump has pledged to terminate the Department of Education,[221] claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists."[277] At the American Federation of Teachers national convention, Harris attacked recent efforts to ban books.[278] She has also previously called for raising teacher's wages.[279]
Foreign policy
Main article: Foreign policy of the United States
Further information: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Foreign policy
Joe Biden signing Executive Order 14065 in February 2022 in response to Russia's imminent invasion of Ukraine. The United States has given billions worth of military aid to Ukraine following the Russian invasion of the country in 2022.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and Israel–Hamas war are expected issues in the election.[280] Harris has signaled to generally follow Biden's foreign policy on NATO and Ukraine, supporting both in the aftermath of the Russian invasion.[183][281] A supporter of the two-state solution,[183][282] Harris is seen as more sympathetic to Palestinians than Biden, who has described himself as a Zionist and has a long history with Israeli leaders.[281] Regarding the Israel–Hamas war, analysts expect Harris to continue Biden's approach.[283] Following Hamas's attack on Israel in 2023, Harris strongly supported Israel's offensive,[284][283] stating that "the threat Hamas poses to the people of Israel must be eliminated".[183] However, she has since criticized Israel's approach and the Gaza humanitarian crisis.[281] In March 2024, Harris opposed Israel's invasion of Rafah,[183] called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza,[283][183] and stated that the situation in Gaza is a "humanitarian catastrophe".[183] Harris has advocated for "de-risking" from Beijing, a policy that encourages reducing Western economic dependence on China.[285] Harris is expected to continue deepening American alliances in Asia and the Pacific with the intention of curbing China's rising power both economically and militarily.[286]
Trump's 2024 campaign has reiterated its isolationist "America First" foreign policy agenda,[287][288] and has promised to "fundamentally reevaluate" NATO's purpose and mission, shifting the nation's defense burdens from Europe towards Asia.[221] Trump has stated he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to countries that did not contribute enough to NATO.[289] Trump has said he would cut off aid to Ukraine quickly if reelected.[290] Trump previously stated he would potentially recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,[291] and made suggestions that he could have prevented the war by ceding parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia.[287] Trump has voiced strong support for Israel in the Israel–Hamas war, and has stated that they must "finish the problem".[292] Trump has promised a tougher stance against China than Biden,[293] but has also questioned whether America should defend Taiwan.[294] Trump has suggested withdrawing troops from South Korea if it does not pay more to support U.S. troops there.[180]
Israel–Hamas war views
Further information: Israel–Hamas war protests in the United States and Israel–Hamas war protest vote movements
Polling has indicated a significant divide between government policy on the Israel–Hamas war and the views of the general public.[295] More than 700,000 primary voters in 23 states are expected to vote the same way as their counterparts in France and Britain recently, a signal that support for Israel's actions in Gaza could become a political liability for moderate Democrats.[296] During the election, several pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian protests occurred in the United States. Before dropping out, Biden voiced support for the right to protest but criticized when they became violent or antisemitic.[297] Harris has described young Americans who are protesting against Israel's actions in Gaza as "showing exactly what the human emotion should be", but said she "absolutely rejects" some of their statements, despite understanding "the emotion behind it."[284] Trump has stated he would shut down Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators, and "set the movement back 25 or 30 years."[298]
Healthcare issues
Further information: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § Healthcare, and Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Social services and healthcare
The issue of healthcare, drug policy, and the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election.[299][300]
Harris has supported efforts to strengthen coverage under the Affordable Care Act,[154] including setting caps on seniors' out-of-pocket prescription drug prices at $2,000 and limiting the cost of insulin for those on Medicare to $35 enacted as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.[213] Harris has been a proponent of White House efforts to ban medical debt from credit reports.[252] Harris has stated she no longer supports a single-payer healthcare system.[154] Harris has supported the expanded child tax credit enacted in the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 that reduced child poverty by 20%.[213] Harris has expressed support for making child care and elder care more affordable and enacting paid family leave.[252] On August 16, 2024, Kamala Harris announced the proposal of a $6,000 child tax credit, expanding her populist economic agenda. Other policies including expanding a cap on prescription drug costs and permanently reinstating the expanded child tax credit.[301]
Trump has made repealing the Affordable Care Act a key issue of the 2024 election.[31] During an interview on March 11, 2024, Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which the Trump campaign later claimed was merely referring to "cutting waste" and that he would protect the programs. Trump previously suggested while president in 2020 that he would "at some point" look into cutting entitlement programs, and Trump's previous budget proposals have suggested some cuts to the programs. During the Republican primary, Trump attacked his opponents by suggesting they would cut entitlement benefits.[302][303]
LGBT rights
Main articles: LGBT rights in the United States and Transgender rights in the United States
Further information: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § LGBT rights, Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § LGBT rights and civil rights, and 2020s anti-LGBT movement in the United States
Students in Des Moines protesting an anti-transgender law signed by Republican Governor Kim Reynolds in 2022
In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that Democrats say restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.[304][305]
Harris is a strong supporter of LGBT people's rights.[306] She has denounced legislative attacks on transgender rights in states across the country.[307][308]
Trump has promised a rollback on Democratic-supported policies surrounding transgender individuals.[309] Trump stated he will rescind Biden's Title IX protections "on day one" for transgender students using bathrooms, locker rooms, and pronouns that align with their gender identities.[310] Trump has stated he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders and claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left."[311] Trump has pledged "severe consequences" for teachers who "suggest to a child that they could be trapped in the wrong body." Trump previously withdrew Title IX provisions that allowed transgender youth to have access to the bathrooms of their choice, and he attempted to roll-back several transgender-related policies in the Affordable Care Act.[309]
Democratic Party
Main articles: 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries and 2024 Democratic Party presidential candidates
On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden officially announced his bid for re-election, confirming that Vice President Kamala Harris would remain his running mate.[312][313] Following this announcement, Republicans increased their focus on Harris, intensifying criticism against her.[314] During late 2021, amid Biden's declining approval ratings, speculation arose regarding whether he would seek re-election.[315] Public figures, including Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan, and former Representative Joe Cunningham, urged Biden not to run.[316][317][318]
Concerns about Biden's age were prominent, given that he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78, which would make him 82 at the end of his first term and 86 at the end of a potential second term.[319] An April 2023 poll indicated that 70 percent of Americans, including 51 percent of Democrats, believed Biden should not seek a second term, with nearly half citing his age as the reason. Biden's approval rating stood at 41 percent, with 55 percent disapproving, according to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.[320] Speculation also arose that Biden might face a primary challenge from the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[321][322] However, after Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed Biden's chances of securing the party's nomination had increased.[323]
Author Marianne Williamson was the first to challenge Biden by announcing her candidacy in February 2023.[324] In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also entered the race but later shifted his campaign to an independent run on October 9, 2023.[325] Representative Dean Phillips joined the race on October 26, 2023.[326] Williamson initially withdrew from the race in February 2024 but later resumed her campaign, only to end it again on June 11, 2024.[327][328][329]
Jason Palmer, who surprised many by winning the American Samoa caucuses, became the first candidate to win a contested primary against an incumbent president since Ted Kennedy in 1980. However, he suspended his campaign on May 15, 2024.[330] On March 12, 2024, Biden secured a majority of delegates, becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee.[331]
Despite securing the nomination, Biden faced significant opposition from “uncommitted” voters and the Uncommitted National Movement, who collectively garnered more votes than several major contenders in the 2020 Democratic primaries and won 36 delegates.[332] Following a widely panned debate performance against Donald Trump on June 27, 2024, Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, endorsing Kamala Harris as his successor.[333] Harris quickly announced her campaign and secured enough delegate endorsements by July 22, becoming the presumptive nominee.[334]
The Democratic Party conducted a virtual roll call vote on August 2, where Harris secured the majority of delegate votes and became the official nominee on August 5.[335] She selected Tim Walz as her running mate the following day.[336] If successful, Harris would make history as the first female and first Asian American president of the United States.[337] Walz would be the first vice president to have served in the war on terror.[338]
Democratic nominees
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Kamala Harris Tim Walz
for President for Vice President
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Vice President of the United States
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Governor of Minnesota
(2019–present)
Republican Party
Main articles: 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries and 2024 Republican Party presidential candidates
Results of the 2024 Republican presidential primaries
Nikki Haley
Donald Trump
Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland in 1892.[339] Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[340][341] Trump was considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.[342] Trump had announced in March 2022 that his former vice president Mike Pence would not be his running mate.[343] In civil proceedings, Trump has been found liable for sexual abuse and defamation in 2023, defamation in 2024, and financial fraud in 2024, becoming the first former president to be convicted of a crime.[17]
In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[344] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents that contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[345][346]
Trump faced opposition in the primaries, easily defeating Nikki Haley.[347]
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[348][349][350] On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback," DeSantis said. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[351] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[352] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[353]
Following the Iowa caucuses, in which Trump posted a landslide victory, DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving the former president and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served in Trump's cabinet, as the only remaining major candidates.[354][355] Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum.[356] On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign.[357]
On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.[358]
Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13 with a gunshot wound to the ear.[359]
On July 15, 2024, the first day of the Republican National Convention, Trump officially announced that Senator JD Vance of Ohio would be his running mate.[359] If elected, he would be the first marine and first Iraq War veteran to serve as vice president.[360]
On July 18, 2024, Trump accepted the nomination from the Republican National Convention to become the Republican presidential nominee. This was the third consecutive election in which he was the Republican nominee.[361]
Republican nominees
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Third-party and independent candidates
Main article: Third-party and independent candidates for the 2024 United States presidential election
See also: Spoiler campaign
Third-party and independent candidates have also announced presidential runs, including Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Kennedy dropped out of the race in August 2024. Centrist political organization No Labels abandoned their efforts in April 2024.[362] Some existing third parties, such as the American Solidarity Party, the Prohibition Party, the Constitution Party, the Libertarian Party and the Party for Socialism and Liberation, and the Green Party have announced presidential nominees.
With majority ballot access
Libertarian Party
Main articles: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries and Chase Oliver 2024 presidential campaign
Chase Oliver was chosen by the Libertarian Party as its presidential nominee on May 26, 2024, at the 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Oliver was the party's candidate in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia.[363] As of May 2024, the party has ballot access in at least 37 states with a total of 380 electoral votes.[364]
2024 Libertarian Party ticket
Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat
for President for Vice President
Sales account executive
from Georgia Economist
from Virginia
Green Party
Main articles: 2024 Green Party presidential primaries and Jill Stein 2024 presidential campaign
Stein was also the party's candidate in 2012 and 2016. Stein is a physician and a former member of the Lexington Town Meeting. On August 16, Stein selected academic Butch Ware as her running mate.[365]
2024 Green Party ticket
Jill Stein Butch Ware
for President for Vice President
Physician
from Massachusetts Academic
from California
With partial ballot access
These third party candidates have ballot access in some states, but not enough to get 270 votes needed to win the presidency, without running a write-in campaign.
American Solidarity Party: Peter Sonski, Connecticut school board member[366]
Approval Voting Party: Blake Huber, nominee for president in 2020[367]
Constitution Party: Randall Terry, anti-abortion activist and perennial candidate[368]
Green Party of Alaska: Jasmine Sherman, nonprofit executive and activist[369]
Independent American Party and Constitution Party offshoots: Joel Skousen, survivalist and consultant[370]
Prohibition Party: Michael Wood, businessman[371]
Party for Socialism and Liberation: Claudia De la Cruz, political activist[372][373]
Socialist Equality Party: Joseph Kishore, writer and SEP nominee in 2020[374]
Socialist Workers Party: Rachele Fruit, hotel worker and trade unionist[375]
Independent candidates
The following notable individuals are running independently for president.
Cornel West, academic, left-leaning and anti-war activist and public intellectual, previously Green Party primaries candidate[376][377] launching an independent campaign[378][379]
Shiva Ayyadurai, engineer, entrepreneur, anti-vaccine activist and conspiracy theorist; Republican Party candidate for U.S. Senate from Massachusetts in 2018 and 2020[380][381][b]
Withdrawn candidates
The following notable individual(s) announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., environmental lawyer, anti-vaccine activist and conspiracy theorist, previously Democratic primaries candidate launching an independent campaign (endorsed Trump)[382]
Timeline
Main article: Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election
Opinion polling and forecasts
Opinion polling aggregation
Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
Harris and Trump
LOESS graph of the opinion polling between Harris and Trump taken during 2024. The dashed line is when Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee.
LOESS graph of the opinion polling between Harris and Trump since the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The dashed lines are when both candidates became the presumptive nominees for their respective parties.
Show all
Source of poll
aggregation Dates
administered Dates
updated Kamala
Harris
Democratic Donald
Trump
Republican Others/
Undecided
[c] Margin
RealClearPolitics Auguts 5 – August 28, 2024 September 1, 2024 48.1% 46.3% 5.6% Harris +1.8%
Race to the WH through August 30, 2024 August 30, 2024 49.1% 45.8% 5.1% Harris +3.3%
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill through August 30, 2024 August 30, 2024 49.4% 45.6% 5.0% Harris +3.8%
270toWin through August 30, 2024 August 30, 2024 48.2% 45.4% 6.4% Harris +2.8%
FiveThirtyEight through August 29, 2024 August 29, 2024 47.1% 43.8% 9.1% Harris +3.3%
Silver Bulletin through August 31, 2024 August 31, 2024 49.1% 45.6% 5.3% Harris +3.5%
Average 48.5% 45.4% 6.1% Harris +3.1%
Electoral College forecasts
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
"tossup": no advantage
"tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
"lean" or "leans": slight advantage
"likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
"safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by forecasters The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, CNalysis, Decision Desk HQ, and RealClearPolitics are omitted for brevity.[d]
State EVs PVI[385] 2020
result 2020
margin[386] IE
August 29,
2024[387] Cook
August 27,
2024[388] CNalysis
August 18,
2024[389] Sabato
August 20,
2024[390] CNN
August 18,
2024[391] RCP
August 18,
2024[392] DDHQ
August 30,
2024[393] 538
September 1,
2024[383] Economist
August 23,
2024[384]
Alaska 3 R+8 52.8% R 10.06% Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R
Arizona 11 R+2 49.4% D 0.31% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Colorado 10 D+4 55.4% D 13.50% Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Delaware 3 D+7 58.7% D 18.97% Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D Solid D
Florida 30 R+3 51.2% R 3.36% Lean R Likely R Very Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R
Georgia 16 R+3 49.5% D 0.24% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Illinois 19 D+7 57.5% D 16.99% Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Indiana 11 R+11 57.0% R 16.07% Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R Solid R
Iowa 6 R+6 53.1% R 8.20% Likely R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R
Kansas 6 R+10 56.4% R 14.63% Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Likely R Solid R
Maine[e] 2 D+2 53.1% D 9.07% Likely D Likely D Very Likely D Likely D Solid D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
ME–01[e] 1 D+9 60.1% D 23.09% Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D
ME–02[e] 1 R+6 52.3% R 7.44% Lean R Likely R Very Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Michigan 15 R+1 50.6% D 2.78% Tossup Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup
Minnesota 10 D+1 52.4% D 7.11% Lean D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Mississippi 6 R+11 57.6% R 16.55% Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R Solid R
Missouri 10 R+10 56.8% R 15.39% Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Likely R Solid R
Montana 4 R+11 56.9% R 16.37% Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Likely R Solid R
NE–01[e] 1 R+9 56.0% R[f] 14.92% Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R Solid R
NE–02[e] 1 EVEN 52.0% D[g] 6.50% Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D Lean D
Nevada 6 R+1 50.1% D 2.39% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
New Hampshire 4 D+1 52.7% D 7.35% Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Likely D Lean D
New Jersey 14 D+6 57.3% D 15.94% Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
New Mexico 5 D+3 54.3% D 10.79% Solid D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
North Carolina 16 R+3 49.9% R 1.35% Tossup Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Ohio 17 R+6 53.3% R 8.03% Likely R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Oregon 8 D+6 56.4% D 16.08% Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Lean D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Pennsylvania 19 R+2 50.0% D 1.16% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
South Carolina 9 R+8 55.1% R 11.68% Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R
Texas 40 R+5 52.1% R 5.58% Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Virginia 13 D+3 54.1% D 10.11% Likely D Likely D Very Likely D Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Likely D Lean D
Washington 12 D+8 58.0% D 19.20% Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D Solid D
Wisconsin 10 R+2 49.5% D 0.63% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup
Overall D – 226
R – 219
93 tossups D – 226
R – 219
93 tossups D – 241
R – 235
62 tossups D – 226
R – 219
93 tossups D – 225
R – 219
94 tossups D – 208
R – 219
111 tossups D – 241
R – 219
78 tossups D – 236
R – 219
83 tossups D – 226
R – 219
93 tossups
Debates
Main article: 2024 United States presidential debates
In April 2022, the Republican National Committee voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).[394] In May 2024, the Biden campaign proposed hosting two debates outside of the CPD timetable and refusing to participate in CPD-hosted debates. Biden and Trump agreed to debates on CNN on June 27 and ABC News on September 10.[395]
June 27 presidential debate: Biden vs. Trump
CNN hosted the first major debate of the election on June 27, with 51 million viewers watching.[396] Media outlets characterized Biden's debate performance as a "disaster". Some pundits noted that he frequently lost his train of thought and gave meandering, confused answers.[397][398][399]
G. Elliott Morris and Kaleigh Rogers of ABC News' 538 argued that Biden had failed to reassure voters that he was capable of serving as president for another four years.[400] After the debate, elected officials, party strategists, and fundraisers conversed about replacing Biden as the party's candidate, including whether prominent Democrats should make a public statement asking him to step aside.[401] Biden stated that he would not be dropping out.[402] Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton reiterated their support for Biden following the debate.[403][404] The debate performance led to Biden ultimately withdrawing his bid for re-election on July 21.
September 10 presidential debate: Harris vs. Trump
The first presidential debate between Harris and Trump is scheduled to be held on September 10 and will be hosted by ABC News.[405] On August 2, 2024, Trump announced that he was withdrawing from the debate as he had agreed only to debate Biden, not Harris.[406] However, on August 8, 2024, ABC reported that both candidates have agreed to the debate as originally scheduled. No location details have been announced.[407] The moderators will be David Muir and Linsey Davis.[408] At that time, Trump had made his participation in the ABC debate contingent on Harris participating in a September 4 debate on Fox News.[409] On August 27, Trump withdrew this demand and recommitted to the ABC debate.[410] On August 15, the Harris campaign said that a second debate in October would be contingent on Trump "actually showing up" to the September 10 debate.[411]
October 1 vice presidential debate: Vance vs. Walz
On August 15, 2024, vice presidential candidates JD Vance and Tim Walz agreed a debate hosted on CBS News on October 1,[412] though Vance indicated he would only attend under certain conditions.[413]
See also
Politics portal
United States portal
2024 United States elections
2024 United States gubernatorial elections
2024 United States House of Representatives elections
2024 United States Senate elections
Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election
Republican Party efforts to disrupt the 2024 United States presidential election
Notes
^ Attributed to multiple references:[56][57][58][59][60][61]
^ Ayyadurai is not eligible to serve as president as he is not a natural-born citizen, but he claims he can run for office.
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ The FiveThirtyEight forecast[383] and Economist[384] each rate only a handful of states as "safe." States rated safe by all other forecasts but FiveThirtyEight and Economist are omitted
^
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a b c d e Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
^ The boundaries of Nebraska's 1st congressional district have since changed because of redistricting.
^ The boundaries of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district have since changed because of redistricting.
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a b Colvin, Jill; Miller, Zeke (November 27, 2023). "Trump says he will renew efforts to replace 'Obamacare' if he wins a second term". Associated Press. Archived from the original on December 4, 2023. Retrieved December 4, 2023.
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a b Collier, Kevin (August 14, 2024). "Google says it observed Iran trying to hack the Trump and Biden-Harris campaigns". USA Today. Archived from the original on August 16, 2024. Retrieved August 16, 2024.
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^
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a b Lange, Jason (April 10, 2024). "Trump hush money charges seen as serious by most voters, Reuters/Ipsos finds". Reuters. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
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^
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a b Kilander, Gustaf (August 7, 2024). "Half of voters voice concerns about Trump's age ahead of election". The Independent.
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a b Rashid, Hafiz (August 8, 2024). "Cognitive Decline? Experts Find Evidence Trump's Mind Is Slowing". The New Republic. ISSN 0028-6583. Retrieved August 19, 2024.
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^
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a b Haberman, Maggie; Nehamas, Nicholas; McFadden, Alyce (October 3, 2023). "Trump Said Shoplifters Should Be Shot, Part of a String of Violent Remarks". The New York Times. Archived from the original on October 8, 2023. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
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a b c d Gabriel, Trip (October 5, 2023). "Trump Escalates Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric With 'Poisoning the Blood' Comment". The New York Times. Archived from the original on January 17, 2024. Retrieved April 26, 2024.
^
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a b LeVine, Marianne (November 12, 2023). "Trump calls political enemies 'vermin,' echoing dictators Hitler, Mussolini". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on November 13, 2023. Retrieved November 12, 2023.
^
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a b Gold, Michael; Huynh, Anjali (April 2, 2024). "Trump Again Invokes 'Blood Bath' and Dehumanizes Migrants in Border Remarks". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 2, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
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^ Attributed to multiple sources:[122][123][124][125][126][127][128]
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^ "Biden condemns 'sick' attempt on Trump's life". BBC. July 14, 2024. Archived from the original on July 14, 2024. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
^
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a b Barnes, Julian E.; Gold, Michael; Levien, Simon J. (July 13, 2024). "Live Updates: Trump 'Safe' After Shooting at Rally; Suspect Killed". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on July 13, 2024. Retrieved July 13, 2024.
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^
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a b Epstein, Reid J. (July 29, 2024). "Why the Kamala Harris of Four Years Ago Could Haunt Her in 2024". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on August 4, 2024. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
^
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a b c d e John, Arit; Tausche, Kayla (July 30, 2024). "Harris recalibrates policy stances as she adjusts to role atop Democratic ticket". CNN. Archived from the original on August 1, 2024. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
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a b Wire, Sarah D.; Beggin, Riley (July 28, 2024). "'A daughter of California': How a Kamala Harris presidency could shake things up". USA TODAY. Archived from the original on July 30, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
^ Rogers, Katie (August 9, 2024). "Harris Used to Worry About Laughing. Now Joy Is Fueling Her Campaign". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on August 23, 2024.
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^ "Trump: 'My Revenge Will Be Success'". The New York Sun. February 21, 2024. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
^
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a b Parker, Ashley; LeVine, Marianne; Godwin, Ross (March 11, 2024). "Trump's freewheeling speeches offer a dark vision of a second term". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on March 11, 2024. Retrieved March 17, 2024.
^ Peter, Smith (May 18, 2024). "Jesus is their savior, Trump is their candidate. Ex-president's backers say he shares faith, values". The Associated Press. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on May 24, 2024. Retrieved June 2, 2024.
^ Multiple sources:
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^
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a b Gold, Michael (August 28, 2024). "Trump Reposts Crude Sexual Remark About Harris on Truth Social". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on August 28, 2024. Retrieved August 28, 2024. Though he has a history of making crass insults about his opponents, the reposts signal Mr. Trump's willingness to continue to shatter longstanding norms of political speech.
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^
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a b For sources on this, see:
Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023). "How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023. Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion — of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
Allison, Natalie (June 24, 2022). "Roe reversal divides 2024 GOP field". Politico. Archived from the original on June 28, 2022. Retrieved June 25, 2022.
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^ Shapero, Julia (June 24, 2022). "Trump credits himself for abortion ruling". Axios. Archived from the original on December 16, 2023. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
^ Feiner, Lauren (May 20, 2022). "Democratic senators concerned about phone location data being used to track people seeking abortions". CNBC. Archived from the original on May 20, 2022. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
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^ "Trump: 'I was able to kill Roe v. Wade'". NBC News. May 17, 2023. Archived from the original on February 5, 2024. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
^ "Trump criticizes Republicans pushing abortion bans with no exceptions: 'You're not going to win'". NBC News. September 16, 2023. Archived from the original on February 5, 2024. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
^
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a b c Cortellessa, Eric (April 30, 2024). "How Far Trump Would Go". Time. Archived from the original on May 11, 2024. Retrieved May 11, 2024.
^ Astor, Maggie (July 21, 2024). "Where Kamala Harris Stands on the Issues: Abortion, Immigration and More". New York Times.
^ Messerly, Megan; Ollstein, Alice Miranda (July 29, 2024). "Kamala Harris' call for 'reproductive freedom' means restoring Roe". Politico.
^
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a b c d e f g h i j k l m Astor, Maggie (July 21, 2024). "Where Kamala Harris Stands on the Issues: Abortion, Immigration and More". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 21, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
^ Prokop, Andrew (August 23, 2024). "Kamala Harris just revealed her formula for taking down Trump". Vox. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
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^ "Americans agree that the 2024 election will be pivotal for democracy, but for different reasons". Associated Press. December 15, 2023. Archived from the original on December 16, 2023. Retrieved December 16, 2023.
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^ "Border arrests drop 33% to a 46-month low in July after asylum restrictions take hold". The Associated Press. August 16, 2024. Retrieved August 16, 2024.
^
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a b Daniels, Eugene; Schneider, Elena (August 9, 2024). "Harris promises to go tough on border security". Politico. Archived from the original on August 11, 2024. Retrieved August 10, 2024.
^ Alvarez, Priscilla; Blackburn, Piper Hudspeth (July 31, 2024). "Harris goes on offensive on immigration, comparing her record with Trump's". CNN. Archived from the original on July 31, 2024. Retrieved July 31, 2024.
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^ Kane, Paul (February 7, 2024). "Senate Republicans retreating into the same ungovernable chaos as House GOP". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on February 7, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
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^ Richard Cowan; Picas Costas (February 5, 2024). "US Senate unveils $118 billion bill on border security, aid for Ukraine, Israel". Reuters. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
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a b c Charlie Savage; Maggie Haberman; Jonathan Swan (November 11, 2023). "Sweeping Raids, Giant Camps and Mass Deportations: Inside Trump's 2025 Immigration Plans". The New York Times. Archived from the original on April 25, 2024. Retrieved April 26, 2024.
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^
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a b c Layne, Nathan; Slattery, Gram; Reid, Tim (April 3, 2024). "Trump calls migrants 'animals,' intensifying focus on illegal immigration". Reuters. Archived from the original on June 17, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024. While speaking of Laken Riley – a 22-year-old nursing student from Georgia allegedly murdered by a Venezuelan immigrant in the country illegally – Trump said some immigrants were sub-human. "The Democrats say, 'Please don't call them animals. They're humans.' I said, 'No, they're not humans, they're not humans, they're animals,'" said Trump, president from 2017 to 2021.
^ Iati, Marisa (March 16, 2024). "Trump says some undocumented immigrants are 'not people'". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on March 16, 2024. Retrieved March 17, 2024.
^ Huynh, Anjali; Gold, Michael (March 17, 2024). "Trump Says Some Migrants Are 'Not People' and Predicts a 'Blood Bath' if He Loses". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 23, 2024. Retrieved April 26, 2024.
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a b c d e Tankersley, Jim (August 16, 2024). "Harris and Trump Offer a Clear Contrast on the Economy". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on August 17, 2024. Retrieved August 16, 2024.
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a b c Spetalnick, Matt; Lewis, Simon (July 21, 2024). "Tougher tone on Israel, steady on NATO: how a Harris foreign policy could look". Reuters. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
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a b Samuels, Brett (July 15, 2024). "Trump picks JD Vance for VP". The Hill. Archived from the original on July 15, 2024. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
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^ "Jill Stein, Cornell West, Chase Oliver: Who else is running for president in 2024?". BBC. November 10, 2023. Retrieved August 25, 2024.
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^ "Approval Voting Party Nominates Blake Huber for President". Ballot Access News. May 28, 2024. Archived from the original on May 31, 2024. Retrieved July 17, 2024.
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[3] Title: August 24, 2024, presidential campaign news | CNN Politics
[3] URL Source: https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-harris-election-08-24-24/index.html
[3] Description: Vice President Kamala Harris is forging ahead as the Democratic nominee after the DNC, while Donald Trump earned a high-profile endorsement. Follow for live updates.
[3] Published Time: 2024-08-24T12:37:50.007Z
[3] Markdown Content:
Brownstein: Why RFK Jr.'s endorsement could be a problem for Trump
05:21 \- Source: [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/)
* **Final sprint to Election Day:** The [unpredictable 2024 presidential race](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/24/politics/harris-trump-2024-race/index.html) is entering its final stretch, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump readying for the contest’s busy final weeks.
* **RFK Jr. backs Trump:** The former president [campaigned in Arizona](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/dnc-harris-trump-campaign-news-08-23-24#h_9a65e96549a57169c79c22470b8d5f1d) last night alongside Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate who [suspended his presidential campaign](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/rfk-jr-suspends-campaign/index.html) and endorsed Trump on Friday.
* **Harris looks ahead:** The vice president’s [historic](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/kamala-harris-americans-history-analysis/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc) campaign is looking to maintain the momentum generated at this week’s [Democratic National Convention](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/takeaways-dnc-day-4/index.html) and is now turning its focus to a [pivotal September debate](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/dnc-harris-trump-campaign-news-08-23-24#h_579112d9ff3b22fae1a7308d9b5e2f7c) against Trump, sources tell CNN.
_Our live coverage has ended. Follow the_ [_latest 2024 election news_](https://www.cnn.com/election/2024) _here or read through the posts below._
Former President Donald Trump’s campaign is bracing for more unfavorable polling news in the days to come.
A memo from Trump pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis sent out by the Trump campaign Saturday predicts a convention bump in polls after the Democratic National Convention for Vice President Kamala Harris.
In July, Fabrizio wrote he expected a “honeymoon” period for Harris after she replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket – a prediction that has certainly come to pass. Before ending his re-election campaign, Biden’s support in CNN Poll of Polls registered at 45%, behind Trump at 49%. Heading into the convention, the race had shifted, with Harris at 50% and Trump at 48%, the CNN Poll of Polls found.
Fabrizio now anticipates the honeymoon for Harris extending, blaming it largely on favorable media coverage of the vice president.
The memo went on to caution against reading too much into national polls that may show Harris pulling ahead.
A new presidential candidate, a slew of celebrities and slick programming helped propel Democrats and Vice President Kamala Harris to a ratings win at this week’s Democratic National Convention, surpassing the television viewership of last month’s Republican gathering.
Viewership of the four-day festivities in Chicago drew an average of 21.8 million viewers, according to Nielsen data, eclipsing the audience of the Republican National Convention by nearly 15%.
On the final evening this week, Harris’ acceptance address was watched by 28.9 million viewers, narrowly outdrawing former President Donald Trump’s speech in Milwaukee, which drew 28.4 million viewers across 15 television networks. Trump’s more than 90-minute address, the longest convention acceptance speech in recent history, came just days after he survived an assassination attempt.
Harris’ viewership victory amounted to a blow for Trump, who is [famously obsessed](https://money.cnn.com/2017/01/25/media/apprentice-ratings-obsession-donald-trump/index.html) with television ratings and the size of his crowds.
Excitement over her candidacy — as well as high-profile speeches by former President Barack Obama, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and former first lady Michelle Obama — helped fuel viewership. So did appearances by a host of celebrities, including Stevie Wonder, John Legend, Pink, Kerry Washington and Mindy Kaling.
Viewership was also likely boosted by a non-appearance: Speculation ran wild online that music superstar Beyoncé would make a surprise performance on the final night. The singer had previously given the Harris campaign permission to use her 2016 hit “Freedom,” which played Thursday night as she took the stage.
The DNC turned normally staid moments into slickly produced spectacles, including a [raucous take on the ceremonial roll call](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/21/entertainment/roll-call-dnc-song-list/index.html) that featured music from each state, as well as a surprise performance by rapper Lil Jon.
**Read more here about the** [**Democrats’ convention ratings win.**](https://www.cnn.com/kamala-harris-dnc-ratings-trump-beyonce/index.html)
Former President Donald Trump will deliver remarks on the economy in Potterville, Michigan, Thursday afternoon, according to his campaign.
The former president is also set to host a town hall that evening in La Crosse, Wisconsin.
Trump “will meet with Wisconsinites to listen to their concerns and share his promising agenda: to make America affordable again,” the campaign said in a statement.
**Reaching out to swing voters:** While Trump campaigns in two of [the “blue wall” states](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/06/politics/harris-running-mate-global-turmoil/index.html) viewed as critical to Democrats, Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will be in another battleground state.
The running mates are kicking off a bus tour in Georgia on Wednesday and will conclude with a rally in the Savannah area on Thursday, according to the campaign.
Few battlegrounds will be more closely watched than Georgia — where President Joe Biden won by fewer than 12,000 votes four years ago — for signs of how voters are responding to campaign outreach.
An Iranian hacker group [targeted the WhatsApp accounts](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/24/politics/iranian-hackers-biden-trump-whatsapp/index.html) of individuals associated with the administrations of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Meta announced Friday.
Meta said their investigation linked the efforts to a group called “APT42,” known for using phishing tactics to steal credentials to people’s online accounts. Meta’s security team blocked a cluster of accounts posing as support agents for various tech companies.
CNN has reached out to both the White House and Trump campaign for comment.
**This is just the latest case:** The Meta incident adds to the growing number of reported [attempts by Iranian-backed hackers](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/14/politics/google-iran-hacking-presidential-election/index.html) to influence the 2024 US presidential election.
Just last week, Google said an alleged Iranian hacking operation aimed at US presidential campaigns is ongoing and wide-ranging. On Monday, US intelligence agencies officially linked Iran to an instance of a hack-and-leak operation targeting Trump’s campaign.
The FBI pointed to a statement from Monday when asked about the purported latest hacking attempts by Iran.
[**Read more on the reported hack here.**](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/24/politics/iranian-hackers-biden-trump-whatsapp/index.html)
When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [suspended his presidential campaign](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/rfk-jr-suspends-campaign/index.html), he did it in the most complicated way.
Kennedy will take himself off the ballot in certain key states, but says he is encouraging supporters to vote for him in safe red and blue states so that he can feature in a “contingent election” if former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris tie. In the battleground states, Kennedy said he’s supporting Trump.
_Here’s what you should know:_
**What’s a contingent election?** If there’s a 269-269 tie in the contest for 538 Electoral College votes, or if a third-party or independent candidate wins electoral votes and keeps both candidates from reaching an Electoral College majority of 270, the next step is called a “contingent election.”
According to the [12th Amendment](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments/amendment-xii/interpretations/171?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwm_SzBhAsEiwAXE2Cv-mlfHTb7yr7CCQn1rH3cMNaW3nO7zqRJWshgKYY2gTjdwApOTNYWBoCWQ0QAvD_BwE), the new House of Representatives, which would have just been sworn in on January 3, chooses the president. The Senate would choose the vice president.
**Could Kennedy actually feature in such an election?** Short answer: No. He could not take part unless he won electoral votes, something that does not seem to be mathematically possible. Perhaps he’s envisioning an elector going rogue and supporting him in defiance of voters, but Kennedy did not share details of his thinking.
**Could a tie actually happen this year?** Yes. While a tie is not a likely outcome, it is something to be ready for.
Here is one plausible scenario for the 2024 election: If Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada and a single electoral vote in Nebraska, all of which Joe Biden won in 2020, but she loses Pennsylvania and Georgia, there’s a tie, 269-269.
The website [270 to Win](https://www.270towin.com/electoral-college-tie-combinations/) also has more tied-election scenarios.
**How would the process work?** The nation would clearly be divided. Lawmakers could be torn between supporting their preferred candidate and the one their state’s voters preferred.
House members can only choose from among the top three finishers in the Electoral College for president, and senators can choose from among the top two finishers for vice president. Kennedy would presumably need to win electoral votes — either a state, or a congressional district in Nebraska or Maine — in order to be an option in a contingent election. There’s no chance of that happening at the moment.
[**Read more about a contingent election here.**](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/04/politics/tie-presidential-election-what-matters/index.html)
Halfway through the final night of [the Democratic National Convention](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/dnc-harris-trump-campaign-news-08-23-24/index.html), actress and celebrity host Kerry Washington noted there are some who still struggle — “or pretend to struggle” — with how to say [Vice President Kamala Harris’ first name](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/16/politics/video/mace-kamala-mispronounce-name-digvid).
“Confusion is understandable,” Washington said. “Disrespect is not.”
In keeping with the [convention themes](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/takeaways-dnc-day-4/index.html) of joy and an introduction to the Democratic nominee, Washington was joined onstage by Harris’ great-nieces Amara and Leela Ajagu, who led the crowd in a chant: “Comma,” like the punctuation mark, then “La,” like a sing-song la-la-la.
It was a lighthearted approach to a darker theme running through this election: the ways race and gender have colored attacks leveled at Harris since she launched her presidential campaign. Former President Donald Trump has mocked Harris’ name and laugh in an echo of his [2016 race against Hillary Clinton](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/20/politics/hillary-clinton-kamala-harris-history/index.html), and has even made [false claims about Harris’ racial identity](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/18/politics/video/sotu-jeffries-on-trump-harris-race).
For many women of color, particularly those who have run for office and been in the political spotlight, it’s a familiar challenge.
“When I have a job to do, you can call me every name in the book — that does not define me,” said Val Demings, a former Florida US congresswoman and 2022 Democratic nominee for Senate. “I am defined by the quality of work that I do for the people that I represent.”
The end of the Democratic convention marks a new phase of the campaign, a 74-day sprint to Election Day and increased pressure on Harris to lay out her policies, including at next month’s debate. In interviews and convention speeches, Black women leaders said the Harris campaign should continue to avoid engaging directly with personal attacks.
**Read more here about** [**the personal attacks**](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/black-women-harris-trump-attacks/index.html) **on Harris.**
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced Friday that he will be [suspending](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/rfk-jr-suspends-campaign/index.html) — but not “terminating” — his presidential campaign and threw his support behind former President Donald Trump.
Kennedy announced that he will withdraw his name from the ballot in “about 10 battleground states, where my presence would be a spoiler.”
But he added that he will remain on the ballot in several solidly red or blue states, where voters can vote for him without “harming or helping” Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, because the winner’s margins of victory are expected to be so significant.
And in those states, he urged voters to vote for him, making the case that he “could conceivably still end up in the White House” if Trump and Harris each fail to secure 270 electoral votes.
Kennedy continued on to say that the causes that led him to “leave the Democratic Party and run as an independent” also “persuaded” to “throw my support to President Trump.”
Trump thanked Kennedy for his “very nice endorsement.”
_CNN’s Aaron Pellish and Edward-Isaac Dovere contributed to this post._
Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will kick off a bus tour in battleground Georgia next week, marking their first time campaigning in the state together and underscoring the Democrats’ focus on the Peach State.
Few battlegrounds will be more closely watched than Georgia — where President Joe Biden won by fewer than 12,000 votes four years ago — for signs of how voters are responding to campaign outreach, making the state a fitting kickoff for Harris and Walz on the heels of the Democratic National Convention.
The swing through south Georgia will kick off Wednesday and conclude with a rally in the Savannah area on Thursday, according to the Harris-Walz campaign. Walz will not attend the rally.
The campaign has already built a robust infrastructure in the state, with more than 170 staffers in 24 offices. The campaign on Friday also released a [new TV ad in Georgia](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/dnc-harris-trump-campaign-news-08-23-24#h_04487220b02d56dd0583561089488839), among other swing states, focusing on Harris’ economic vision.
Former President Donald Trump addressed supporters at a rally in Glendale, Arizona, Friday, where he was joined by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., [who suspended his own presidential campaign](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/rfk-jr-suspends-campaign/index.html) just hours earlier.
**Trump criticized Harris’ convention speech:** The former president slammed Vice President Kamala Harris [for her repeated mentions and attacks on him](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/dnc-harris-trump-campaign-news-08-23-24#h_9a65e96549a57169c79c22470b8d5f1d), and claimed her speech at the Democratic National Convention on Thursday night lacked any mention of policy issues, such as immigration and inflation. However, Harris did mention the border and criticized Trump’s role in tanking a bipartisan border bill earlier this year.
**He previewed a new presidential commission:** Trump said, if elected, he would create [an independent commission to investigate assassination attempts](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/dnc-harris-trump-campaign-news-08-23-24#h_5b580ff40b9b5be47d290c810e01d86f) that would release “all the remaining documents” related to former President John F. Kennedy’s assassination and would “conduct a rigorous review” of the assassination attempt against him last month.
**RFK Jr. could be appointed to a health panel:** When suspending his presidential campaign, Kennedy suggested that [he could join a potential second Trump administration](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/dnc-harris-trump-campaign-news-08-23-24#h_459ee10c2c4e9a4a7036e7712bcc4ace) in a role that would oversee a health care portfolio.
Trump revealed Friday that if elected, he will ask Kennedy to [work on a panel](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/dnc-harris-trump-campaign-news-08-23-24#h_adf6413e8ad9451221771514434fedd8) that would investigate “the decades-long increase in chronic health problems, including autoimmune disorders, autism, obesity, infertility, and many more.”
Kennedy praised Trump for sharing his views on “ending the chronic disease epidemic” and asked the crowd, “Don’t you want a president that’s going to make America healthy again?”
Kennedy has a [long history of making false claims](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/16/politics/donald-trump-robert-f-kennedy-vaccine-skepticism/index.html) about the safety and efficacy of vaccines.
**Several attendees were treated for heat-related illnesses:** More than 100 people were [treated for heat-related illnesses](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/dnc-harris-trump-campaign-news-08-23-24#h_c3928aea56554a4ad06ad6a7480f9d34) while waiting for the former president to take the stage as temperatures in Glendale, reached 106 degrees.
_CNN’s Aaron Pellish, Kate Sullivan, Kristen Holmes. Alejandra Jaramillo and Michelle Watson contributed to this post._
Democrats gave a king’s farewell to President Joe Biden as they rallied around their presidential nominee Kamala Harris at the Democratic National Convention this week.
The four-day convention featured remarks from Biden, former presidents, high-profile celebrities, and speeches from the vice president and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz accepting their nomination.
_Here are some highlights from the DNC:_
**Biden took a bow:**
He delivered a spirited message of support for Harris and Walz, and touted his legislative achievements, while also criticizing Trump.
**Michelle Obama returned with another memorable message:** Former first lady Michelle Obama, who received one of the loudest and longest applauses this week, [made a personal appeal Tuesday](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/21/politics/takeaways-dnc-day-2/index.html) for everyone to “do something” between now and Election Day. And she followed up on her iconic “When they go low, we go high” line from the 2016 convention with another powerful message: “Hope is making a comeback.”
**Walz shared personal struggle as his family proudly watched:** While discussing the fertility struggles he and his wife, Gwen Walz, faced as he accepted the nomination on the [third night of the convention](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/22/politics/takeaways-dnc-day-3/index.html), Walz gave a shout out to his family.
**Harris got personal:** Harris has long struggled to open up about her personal story, but as she [accepted the party’s presidential nomination](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/takeaways-dnc-day-4/index.html), she shared how her father encouraged her to run free on the playground when her mother cautioned her to be careful and talked about the tight-knit community that helped raise her.
And to help share her story, the vice president had the Harris clan: her sister Maya Harris, stepdaughter Ella Emhoff, niece Meena Harris, goddaughter Helena Hudlin. In one of the most memorable moments, [Harris’ grandnieces](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/kamala-harris-nomination-grand-niece-photo/index.html) — Amara and Leela Ajagu — taught the crowd how to pronounce their grand-aunt’s first name: “Comma,” like the punctuation mark, then “La,” like the sing-song “la, la, la.”
For the better part of the past year, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. built and maintained a small but significant base of support for his quixotic White House bid, the two major parties wrestled with an increasingly pressing question: Whose presidential aspirations [might be most damaged](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/robert-kennedy-president-trump/index.html) by an independent aligned with the conspiratorial right but bearing a famous Democratic name?
Now, with Kennedy having [suspended his campaign](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/rfk-jr-suspends-campaign/index.html) and endorsed former President Donald Trump, both parties will be closely watching who his followers gravitate toward in the closing months before Election Day.
Though his odds of victory were quickly diminishing – [a recent CBS News poll](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-poll-kamala-harris-policies-trump-democratic-convention-2024/) measured his support at just 2% – Kennedy’s decision to bow out 74 days before the election nevertheless presents another twist to an unpredictable race.
The former president’s operation hopes Kennedy’s endorsement could prove decisive if certain battlegrounds are decided by thousands of ballots, just as they were in 2020.
It’s hardly certain what Kennedy’s backers will do. Whether many of them ever intended to vote for him or at all is difficult to gauge, and some may choose to sit the election out without an alternative on the ballot.
Still, the Trump campaign has long worried that Kennedy’s campaign, built on conspiracies and anti-vaccine rhetoric, pulled directly from their side, especially in a handful of key states. Trump’s advisers now see an opening to court some of Kennedy’s voters.
There is a presumption among Trump’s team and his allies that conservative-leaning mothers — a demographic the Republican nominee has struggled to win over — could also be swayed.
While Democrats have aggressively attacked Kennedy, the Harris team extended an olive branch to the independent’s backers on Friday, saying “there’s a home for them” in her campaign if they are “looking for somebody who’s actually going to fight for their interests.”
**Read more here about** [**RFK Jr.’s impact on the race**](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/robert-kennedy-president-trump/index.html)**.**
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[5] Title: 2024 United States Presidential Election Odds
[5] URL Source: https://www.vegasinsider.com/odds/us-presidential-election/
[5] Description: The 2024 US presidential election takes place Nov. 5, 2024, and oddsmakers are starting to look at other contenders outside of Donald Trump.
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2024 United States Presidential Election Odds
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Last Updated Aug 29 2024, 4:25 PM
2024 United States Election Odds
================================
[Kevin Rogers](https://www.vegasinsider.com/authors/kevin-rogers/) Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
**__Betting or wagering on the outcome of political events is not permitted in the United States and may be restricted in certain jurisdictions outside the United States__.**
The announcement of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as the VP choice for the Democratic ticket did not affect the betting odds. (Getty)
### [US Presidential Election Analysis](https://www.vegasinsider.com/politics/us-presidential-election-odds-biden-trump-2024-debate/)
Nearly two weeks after United States President **Joe Biden** announced that he won't be running in the 2024 United States Election, the betting markets have stabilized on the two candidates.
The matchup between former President **Donald Trump** and current Vice President **Kamala Harris** is closer than Trump vs. Biden but the Republican Party candidate is still favored.
Trump remains a consensus 4/5 betting favorite (Bet $100 to win $80) to capture the 2024 United States Election on Tuesday November 5, 2024 while Harris is a short underdog at 11/10 odds (Bet $100 to win $110).
Harris selected her running mate for Vice President on Tuesday August 6, 2024, naming Minnesota Governor **Tim Walz**.
According to the [SportsHandle Election Odds Tracker](https://sportshandle.com/us-election-odds-tracker/?__hstc=227247234.b996539a7f14273e728169c904781b14.1725223435410.1725223435410.1725223435410.1&__hssc=227247234.1.1725223435411&__hsfp=426749492), Trump has a 57.8% probability rate of winning the 2024 United States Election as of Tuesday August 6, 2024 while Harris has a 48.3% probability rate of winning.
2024 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BETTING ODDS
--------------------------------------------
* Donald Trump 4/5
* Kamala Harris 11/10
* Robert Kennedy Jr. 66/1
* _All Other Candidates listed at 100/1 or higher_
[bet365](https://www.vegasinsider.com/sportsbooks/bet365/), a legal UK-based operator, is offering odds on US political events such as this one. In the US, bet365 takes bets on [sports](https://www.vegasinsider.com/sportsbooks/) and offers online [casino](https://www.vegasinsider.com/casinos/) betting in select states: **US-based bettors can not wager on political events**.
_Odds Subject to Change_
### 2024 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TOP 5 CONTENDERS
* Donald Trump 4/5
* Kamala Harris 11/10
* Robert Kennedy Jr. 66/1
**How to Read the Odds:**
Ex. Bet $100 on Donald Trump (4/5) to win $80
Ex. Bet $100 on Kamala Harris (11/10) to win $110
Ex. Bet $100 on Robert Kennedy Jr. (66/1) to win $6,600
Donald Trump (L) and J.D. Vance will be the ticket for the Republican Party in the upcoming 2024 U.S. Election. (Getty)
2024 US PRESIDENTIAL WINNING PARTY ODDS
---------------------------------------
* Republicans 8/11 (Bet $100 to win $72.99)
* Democrats 11/10 (Bet $100 to win $110.00)
* Independent 40/1 (Bet $100 to win $4,000)
2024 PRESIDENTIAL ODDS: KEY INFO
--------------------------------
* **Election Date:** November 5, 2024
* **Democrat Candidate:** Kamala Harris
* **Republican Candidate:** Donald Trump
PARTY NOMINATION ODDS
---------------------
[bet365 Sportsbook](https://www.vegasinsider.com/sportsbooks/bet365/) has odds available for both the Democratic and Republican nomination for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. As it is with the Political betting market, these odds are not available for legal wagering in the United States, but is regulated in other jurisdictions.
The global sportsbook has plenty of options available for these betting markets, which include politicians, actors, news personalities and many other individuals.
HOW DOES THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WORK?
-------------------------------------------
The United States uses Electoral Colleges to determine the president and vice president. The candidate with 270 Electoral College votes takes the presidency. Each state is assigned a set of votes based on the number of representatives in the House of Representatives, with two more added for the senators each state has in Congress. The candidate with the most votes for a particular state will take all of the Electoral College votes (Nebraska and Maine dole out their Electoral votes based on the proportion of the popular vote each candidate gets) to reach that magic number of 270. But just because you win the presidency doesn’t mean you won the nation’s popular vote.
There have been five instances when the winner hasn’t had more votes by the people. While three of those instances happened during the 1800s (John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, and Benjamin Harrison), we’ve seen it happen in two of the last four presidential elections: George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016 won against Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, respectively.
And before you ask, yes, global bookmakers offer bets on different party combinations for the Electoral College and popular vote. While this type of betting is not available in the US, other betting on sporting events is available-- and you can use a [DraftKings promo code](https://www.vegasinsider.com/sportsbooks/draftkings/promo/) for some extra bonuses when you sign up.
U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - SWING STATE ODDS
---------------------------------------------
According to many political pundits and news mediums in the United States, the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election between incumbent Joe Biden and a yet-to-be-named challenger. In the US, presidential elections are determined by six critical battlegrounds, which is often called the "swing states" race, due to their ability to swing an election in favor of one or another candidate.
These so-called "battleground" states have been determined below:
### 2024 U.S. ELECTION - SWING STATES
* Arizona
* Georgia
* Michigan
* North Carolina
* Pennsylvania
* Wisconsin
If you're in one of these "battleground" states, consider the odds closely when deciding who to vote for. And while doing so, eligible bettors can visit the best [North Carolina Sportsbooks](https://www.vegasinsider.com/sportsbooks/north-carolina/).
BETTING ON US ELECTIONS
-----------------------
Betting on political elections is no different than a typical sports wager. You have your typical money-line or fractional bet. Totals players can bet on the total number of Electoral College votes each candidate wins in the election.
**Again, Americans are not legally allowed to bet on politics in the US.**
GLOBAL SPORTSBOOKS OFFERING US ELECTION ODDS
--------------------------------------------
Legal sportsbooks in the United States do not offer odds on the 2024 United States Presidential Election, or any other political election. This is because betting on politics in the US is prohibited by law. That said, some familiar UK-based sportsbooks with a presence in the US offer election betting markets overseas.
### BETTING ON SPORTING EVENTS IN THE US
While you cannot bet on political events in the US, you can absolutely bet on sporting events! A growing number of states have legalized [online sportsbooks](https://www.vegasinsider.com/sportsbooks/)\-- make sure to check our state guides and reviews for information on bonuses, betting, and more.
Check out the new user [BetMGM bonus code](https://www.vegasinsider.com/sportsbooks/betmgm/) offer before placing your bets on any sporting events for the best odds!
US PRESIDENTIAL ODDS FAQ
------------------------
### CAN I BET ON THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? WHERE?
At this time, it is illegal to bet on politics in the United States. So, short answer, no.
### HOW DO I BET ON THE 2024 ELECTION?
Again, you can't in the US. Some offshore bookmakers offer lines, but we _absolutely do not recommend_ that. There's much more risk involved, and you can't be certain you'll receive any winnings or be able to withdraw your money.
### WHAT KIND OF ELECTION PROP BETS ARE THERE?
The most straightforward political prop bet for the US election is simply "Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?" You can also find prop bets on things like "first to have classified documents leaked"; "first woman to win Presidential seat", etc. It's a wild world out there for election bettors, but if you're in the US, you're prohibited from making prop bets on US politics.
#### Kevin Rogers
Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. [More from Kevin Rogers](https://www.vegasinsider.com/authors/kevin-rogers/)
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